Media Hype -- Good or Bad?

Went to Facebook this morning to find it inundated with media links re the fact that "The Weather Channel" has added Tampa to the list of cities "most overdue" for a direct hit by a hurricane.  91 years since the last one and that has always been called the 1921 "Tarpon Springs Hurricane" because the direct hit was taken by our lovely little town and the surrounding citrus groves.  I am not sure who subtracted 1921 from 2013 and got "91" as the mathematical solution.

It has been 92 years since that hurricane season.  The population of the Greater Tampa Bay area has grown by 1,933%.  Tarpon Springs has grown from a population of 2,105 to 23,484 (2010 census), an increase of 1,016%.  In 1921 there 6 bridges throughout the region.  Today there are 23 -- and they are very heavily traveled.  There were few dwellings along the coast in 1921.  Today they are over developed.  Low elevations and limited exit routes increase our vulnerability. The 1921 storm is estimated to have been a Category 3 storm, driving much water in front of it.

NOAA has an excellent presentation of this information at this LINK.  I found the maps for storm surge particularly interesting as well as the discussion of the "human" element.  I also found it interesting that despite Tarpon having taken the direct hit, there were no pictures and very little mention of our city.

Should we experience a hurricane of that magnitude here in Tampa Bay area, I believe the death toll will be high.  And most of the death toll will be in Pinellas County, not Tampa.

Why?

Because I live among a lot of people who will not evacuate -- or who will wait until it is too late to evacuate. There are several reasons for this: 1)  it costs money to evacuate outside of the area and people do not want to go to a local school or other place where they cannot ride the storm out fairly comfortably; 2) it is human to deny that it "will happen to us" and they will expect the storm to take a different track than the one predicted; 3)  they are idiots.

Media hype exacerbates all three reasons: 1)  after a storm, they dwell ad nauseam re the perceived discomfort of shelters; 2)  they continually hype the storms so that when they do not turn out as predicted, it creates a mindset; and 3) they pay idiots to go out and stand in the elements to show us how "bad" it is -- so that idiots who think they know more than the authorities can (and will) emulate them.

These days one needs to remember that "The Weather Channel" is owned by the same folks who own CNN and NBC. Hype sells ads and brings millions into their coffers.

So we walk a fine line. Watch TV for status reports -- but pay attention to government notices and take our lead from the people paid to protect us -- not "The Weather Channel," "Accuweather," or their ilk.  And when our emergency management people call for a voluntary evacuation along the coast, we will pack up and go.  Right then.  No waiting to "see if it will turn."  Our motto: "Better safe than sorry."  Nothing is more important than our lives and that of our pup.  Everything else is just "stuff."